PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2008

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES?

Kenneth Hacker


August 19,2007

The pundits keep talking about Karl Rove being gone. Known as "Bush's Brain" by many of them, Rove is not going away but only shifting places. Look for him to be consulting, however surreptitiously, one of the Republican presidential candidates.

While the Republicans seek a reincarnation of Ronald Reagan in of the their candidates, the Democrats are trying to find the most viable winner among their stock, even if that winner is Hillary Clinton. Clinton has a momentum that even Obama seems unable to upset.

Two longshots are Mike Huckabee and Bill Richardson but both should not be written off too early. Huckabee came in second in the Iowa Republican straw poll. Richardson needs to become a champion of something clearly upsetting most Americans, perhaps the war in Iraq.

Chris Matthews and Dan Rather (MSNBC, today) suggsted that Obama may need to challenge Clinton a large one on one debate to show why he is a better candidate. This may be very good advice and might apply to other candidates such as Richardson. Richardson, like Obama, seems stuck in the mud with old-school campaign techniques.




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July 19, 2007

CNN is taking questions via YouTube on the Paula Zahn (who is wearing low neckline clothes) news show. This is an interesting way of making the election news appear to be more participatory. Discussions on this show concerned how much religion is important to American politics and elections. Guest Dennis Praeger divided everything neatly in half by asking if America was -founded by believers or non-believers apparently never learning in high school that colonial leaders were mixed on how religious they were and most were not Puritans.

Back to the election, I will be writing a separate post soon called You Cannot Get Elected With a Resume. Richardson may be the only really qualified candidate for president but will never get elected assuming the campaign he has being run for him. That campaign is run by people who had no work to do in getting him re-elected as governor of New Mexico because his competition was out to lunch and defeated himself by irrational commentary.

No winner is yetpredictable but we can expect McCain to close up shop early next year due to his surge against the zeitgeist. Romney is looking more like whirling Dervish on issues than a man of commitment and Fred Thompson is pushing his Arthur Branch image to the hilt. I expect to see John Edwards losing ground to whatever Democrat hooks up to authenticity and true leadership credentials while blasting the current presidency with flourish and a total absenec of trepidation. Is there such a candidate on the Democratic side?

Voters have the war in Iraq in mind as their top issue. Nearly 70% do not approve of the war as now managed by Commander Bush. Republicans will have to change the war status of their party while showing that they are more competent than a Democrat in 2009. Is there such a candidate on the Republican side?

In both parties, viability appears to be driving candidate images a great deal. Partisans dont jus want a good speaker but also want someone who can win the war of the presidential race of 2008. We can expect Guiliani to begin to suffer polling point losses with recent news about attacks on his image by NYC firefighters.

In an election season full of flawed candidates, issues and policies like a rational and realistic approach to leaving Iraq may determine the election results.

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January 5, 2007:

McCain continues to dig a hole for himself by not only going against 71% of the American people (that percentage not approving of Bush's handing of the war in Iraq), but also by flip-flopping on what he says about Iraq. Today, he was shown on the news as advocating a substantial and sustained "surge" of American troops to serve in Iraq. He also whittled away at his own credibility by going against so much testimony by generals and other experts that indicates that an alleged "surge" of troops may not have any significant effect at all on the civil war in Iraq. McCain appears oblivious to the fact that he is losing credibility on a daily basis. Does he even care?

It is not fairly obvious that Gore and Kerry and old news and have no chance whatsover of getting the Democratic nomination. McCain may find himself outpaced by Romney, Guliani, and some Republican dark horses as he utters inane comments about fighting terrorists in Iraq so they dont have to fought here.

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December 25, 2006:

New poll data indicate that Obama is neck and neck now with Clinton in being frontrunners for the Democratic nomination. Clark does not appear to be running. Some observers think that Richardson and Edwards may be gaining speed. The best Democratic ticket in my view, at this time, would be a Richardson-Clark ticket. Richardson can handle foreign affairs, and Clark, who led the are on a much stronger state than Iraq (Serbia), can come up with a fix for Iraq.

McCain will implode with his hawkish rhetoric on Iraq while Guiliani will present a moderate possiblity for the Republican side. New Yorker Guiliani could probably beat New Yorker Clinton.
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December 18, 2006:

It seems like every day now that TV reporters ask questions about who is running in 2008. A Republican consultant, Mike Murhy, told Chris Matthews (Hardball, CNBC) that he believes Gore will get the Democratic nomination. On other shows, the talking heads wondered about where the frontrunners really are and when we will know.

In November, results from a purely emotional evaluation of political figures were released by Quinnipiac Univeristy (thermometer ratings, 0-100 with 100 being best). Here are the results( 1,623 registered voters) :

Giuliani 64.2

Obama 58.8

McCain 57.7

Rice 56.1

B. Clinton 55.8

Lieberman 52.7

Bloomberg 51.1

Edwards 49.9

H. Clinton 49.0

Richardson 47.7

Biden 47.0

Pelosi 46.9

Romney 45.9

Gore 44.9

G. Bush 43.8

Bayh 43.3

Gingrich 42.0

Frist 41.5

Reid 41.2

Kerry 39.6


m.e. = +/- 2.4

If this data is useful alone, the dream competition for Republicans would be Giuliani vs. Gore and Democrats would most relish an Obama vs. Frist race. But Frist is not running and others like Bayh are beginning to drop out.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could find themselves challenged by Edwards and Richardson. Kerry and Gore are washed up because they lost to Bush.

On the Republican side, Giuliani may it back and watch McCain march in the opposite diretion that voters are marching with his calles for more troops in Iraq. Meanwhile, he can get a social conservative makeover. Or he could get someone like Sam Brownback to run for VP.

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December 11, 2006:

Gallup Poll data indicate today that Guiliani is the Republican frontrunner among Republicans and Clinton is leading among Democrats. Larry Sabato, University of Virginia political scientists and election expert, argues that McCain may kill his chances of getting the Republican nominatino if he continues to out-Bush Bush on the war.

Mitt Romney is being talked about as a possible Republican nominee. It is hard to believe that some of the chattering heads are wondering about his Mormonism holding him back. Can anyone take Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell serious about anything anymore after all of the nonsense they have churned out over the past two decades? John Kennedy swept aside the alleged issue of being a Catholic in what was considered Protestant America in 1960. There is no reason to think that Americans will not focus more on issues that religious background in 2008 also. In fact, being affiliated with Robertson, Falwell and the other clergy who make themselves filthy rich off the Gospel might be a kiss of death for Republican candidates in 2008. They can no longer assume a stupid electorate moved by the emotion-based strategies of Karl Rove.

Democrats have a resonating issue with "the culture of corruption" that was part of the Abramoff, Delay, "Christian" right network of bribes, lies, and scandals. Yet Delay said on MSNBC today talking about how the "politics of personal destruction" and the "liberal media" brought him. Are we supposed to feel sorry for what we flush in the morning? Delay warns America that we are going to learn who the "real" Barack Obama is soon. Can someone switch then channel please?

Meanwhile, Democrats are still searning around for a winning set of strategies and techniques, worreid that Karl Rove might be right we he says he will get them next time. Rove knows how to read the electorate in the most economical ways possible, how to reach fear and worrries at emotional levels while attacking what Democratic candidates put out as their strongest traits. Anyone expecting a civil campaignin 2008 will be shocked.

Some commentators believe that Obama is selling what John Kennedy sold and that is hope. How much truth is there to this claim. Can it be proven for either candidate? Some believe that Obama is a completely liberal politician while otehrs believe that he his and idealistic realist. It is interesting to see how much projection is going on simply because Obama is personally attactive and has charisma. Two years of experience in the Senate hardly qualifies him to be president, however. On the other hand, Democrats might be hoping to our Rove Karl Rove by using emotion-based campaigning against the famous Rove gut-level persuasion.


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December 10, 2006:

There is evidence that various news media are looking for celebrity "buzz" about who will run for the presidency in 2008. Qualifications and policies seem to take second to the buzz about buzz. Sen. Sam Brownback is threatening to run as a conservative Republican. Apart from his Kansas fame, he is most likely unknown to most Americans. However, he makes an interesting argument that he will become known for his policy proposals.

McCain is still advocating more troops to solve the Iraq quagmire. Advisers say he does not pay close attention to polls when making policy statements. This sounds familiar and might serve as a warning that a President McCain would share the listening deficits that Bush is famous for.

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The presidential race of 2008 is now in motion with pundits all over the place not able to tell with any reasonable certainty who will be the party nominees. The Democrats went for the dynamic center of the spectrum in the congressional election of 2006 and found their resonance with voters once again.

McCain may self-destruct by not recognizeing that voters now have Iraq war fatigue. If he runs, opposition research might also note his old Keating Five status and his unwillingness to thrash the Bush campaign in 2000 for thrashing his wife.

Guiliani has womanizing issues that make him a nice target for the Democratic Party of 2008.

Barack Obama gives good speeches is short on presidential credentials.

Hillary Clinton is still a polarizing figure and would help Republicans raise money to defeat the Democrats in 2008. She is not sounding decisive on Iraq. If she sounds like McCain and calls fo more troops, she will be set up for defeat.

Bill Richardson is a dark horse and has a shot with some keen image building around his diplomacy skills. If he stays quiet about Iraq, he may never get traction, however.


December 7, 2006
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Mark Warner is no longer in the running, so I was dead wrong on that one. Hillary Clinton and John McCain look like the main frontrunners right now.

December 7, 2006
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No one, repeat no one, knows right now who will take the office of the presidency of the United States in 2009. We do know that the public is disturbed with the current direction of the nation and will be looking for new ideas from the new president.

For now, and this is total speculation, my best guess is that Mark Warner will be the next president. Next possible, in my estimation, are Hillary Clinton, Rudi Guiliani, and John McCain. Longshots and those not likely to get nominated are Bill Richardson and Newt Gingrich. The toughest fight on the Democratic side looks like it might be between Mark Warner and Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton will marshall his backers and expertise to help his wife. Warner will rally the southern and centrist Democrats to join the Lincoln coalition. On the Republican side, futher hijacking of the party by theocrats will look insane to those in the party who wish to win the White House. Moderates like Chuck Hagel will gain more audience.

Democratic party preferences may be moving in the direction of a centrist and southern set of appeals like a Warner-Clark team. Because of his success in commanding the war against Serbia and his vast military knowledge, the public may come to view Gen. Clark as capable of handing the the phased withdrawal from Iraq that Democrats will offer as an alternative to the Republican plan of standing fast in Iraq.

Whether Democrat or Republican, I suspect that the next president will be a moderate on the overall political spectrum. This is great news for the nation.

15 September 2006