Thursday, September 25, 2008

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IMAGES


PREDICTING THE WINNER OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Kenneth L. Hacker

September 28, 2008


The call for who is now winning and who is now losing the presidential election of 2008 can favor either John McCain or Barack Obama. Both have strengths and weaknesses and voters appeal to be oscillating. The debates should have some settling effects on this oscillation. While McCain is valued for his Senate experience, he is short on change appeal. And while Obama is valued for this change appeal, he is short on experience. This means that voters will continue to sort out what is most important to them as voting criteria. In this essay, I will keep moving forward toward an actural prediction on October 15, 2008.

to be continued...

Monday, September 22, 2008

Will the McCain Campaign Use Racism?

WILL THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN USE RACISM?

Kenneth Hacker

September 22, 2008

We would hope that despite the facts that Nixon and other Republicans used racism to gain southern support, that G. W. Bush began his first presidential campaign at the racist Bob Jones University, and that many Americans are still prejudiced against African Americans, that our nation would have matured away from the use of racism in our presidential elections. The comes a news story like this:

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2008/09/22/gop.racist.statements.koat

John McCain needs to find some courage (like he had in the military) and stand up to those in his party who seek to take the low road this year and remind them that Americans do not have to live with racism like they did in the past. He did not defend his black daughter from the racism of the Bush campaign in the 2000 primaries, for whatever reasons, but he now has a chance to redeem himself and to step up and say something important.

It is certainly true the Democratic Party has had a troubled past with racism also. It was the party of the Confederacy (many of the so-called Red States today) and it slavery. But the Democrats embraced civil rights in the 1960s and incorporated fighting for minority rights into their agenda. This might explain why 90% of African Americans are likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate.

And John McCain? Not only was he spineless in not standing up for his daughter, but he caved into pressure to say it was alright for the Confederate flag to still fly in southern states like South Carolina. If Mr. McCain wants voters to take him seriously about leading America, he needs to show some courage today and stop relying on the courage he had in 1968. But since he voted against the Martin Luther King holiday for his state, this might be wishful thinking. In that case, the voters better take a closer look at his fit with what we seek to be as a nation.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

BARACK OBAMA' CREDIBILITY PROBLEM


BARACK OBAMA'S CREDIBILITY PROBLEM

Kenneth Hacker

September 20, 2008


Many campaign experts believe that this is Obama's election to lose. He has the momentum against the incumbent party on his side and he has an old man with old ideas carrying along an unknown with nutty discourse as his opposition. Still, he is gasping for air in the polls. The reason is a credibility issue that is essentially a failure to yet make most American voters comfortable with him as the chief executive (which includes being commander-in-chief) and getting rid of high-risk perceptions that some voters have of him.

Two Republican consultants who openly note this problem are Dick Morris (dickmorris.com) and Karl Rove (rove.com). Both correctly note that Obama should have been able to start closing the sale by now and can only do so by Election Day by dealing with the Obama Factor and forgetting the Palin Factor.

Like Ronald Reagan running in 1980, voters are seeking change from a man they respect as honorable but not quite up to the job (Carter, McCain). The consultants for Reagan made it clear that he would have to make himself more comfortable for those voters who saw him as dangerous. Perceptions can be changed and they were in the 1980 campaign.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

WILL JOHN MCCAIN BE ANOTHER WARREN G. HARDING?

Presidential Timber Counts:
Why We Should Want a Lincoln More than a Harding

Kenneth Hacker, September 17, 2008

Contrary to some popular discourse about presidential leadership being too slippery to anchor to personal traits, I belief that some key personal traits will help predict who will become a better (not perfect) president among certain choices. These personal characteristics are not innate; they are cultivated over many years in a potential president's life. I derive these traits from three sources: presidential history, leadership studies, and the formal needs of the office of the presidency.

History: Garfield was OK, Harding Was Terrible, and Lincoln Was Great

"Controlling" for political party, I examine three Republican presidents to illustrate what makes some leaders at this level better than others. Garfield was assassinated so is unrated by some historians on numerical scales, while Harding comes out the worst and Lincoln comes out the best on at least one historical ranking account.

James Garfield was the 20th President. He was considered handsome and physically fit, suffering from minor body aches, depression, and some indigestion problems. He was known as a good and persuasive public speaker. He excelled in his education and became a debating champion and then a teacher. After teaching, he went into law. He had one known extramarital affair which his wife called "lawless passion." He served in the Civil War and rose to the rank of general. In the military he was known for his abilities to study strategies and to inspire his soldiers. He served in the U.S. Congress and also as a state senator in Ohio. Shorly after being elected president, he discovered a post office scandal involving his own party, yet ordered that an investigation begin no matter who was found guilty. He was known for strong positions on issues such as his opposition to the spoils system. Garfield was shot by an assassin named Charles Guiteau who said that God told him to shoot Garfield (1881). He was known as a strong and intelligent man who had trouble with being firm and resolute in dealing with conflicts among factions and people in government. Like George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, Garfield was fond of mathematics. In fact, he created a math proof officially known as Garfield's Tapezoidal Proof (1876). This is a published proof.

Warren G. Harding was the 29th President fo the United States. He was known for his good looks, stylish clothes, and pleasing voice. He had poor health including a nervous breakdown and stomach problems. He was obsessed with the rumor that his ancestors may have included some African American genetic influence and used racism to fight racism as he countered the charges by a white supremacist professor (William Chancellor of Wooster College) with claims that the "finest pioneer blood" and came from good blue-eyed stock. He had one known child out of wedlock and no children by marriage. Although claiming to be religious and that God guided his actions, Harding used the White House for poker games, heavy drinking, and having sexual relations with one the women he engaged in extramartial affairs. He had no military experience, tried law school and quit, became an insurance salesman, and then ran a newspaper. While serving as a state senator, lieutenant governor of Ohio and than as as United States Senator, his political actions were marked by bigotry (allowing those supporting him to attack Catholics), missing numerous votes, being uncommitted on major issues, and being aloof on many controversites. The Harding administration was stained with numerous scandals such as the Tea Pot Dome scandal in which is Secretary of the Interior Albert Fall sold national oil reseves for his own personal profit. Fall spent 9 months in prison. A fellow Republican Herbert Hoover said of Harding that he was not intelligent nor experienced enough to be president. Harding had too much faith in his appointees and they let him down with the scandals.

Abraham Lincoln was the 16th President of the United States. He was the tallest of the presidents, was considered rather homely in looks, and has health problems including depression and heart disease. He was known as a careless dresser. He was known as being plain spoken and good at showing interest in people's problems. Lincoln walked four miles each way to attend school when he was a child. He had begun his own ferry business at age 18. While having only one year of formal education he read as much as he could on his own and became fond of reading and reciting entire passages from authors like Shakespeare. He volunteered for military serviced and achieved the rank of captain. However, his entire military term was only 3 months and he never experienced combat. Lincoln taught himself law and developed an apprecation for math as he learned that lawyers have to demonstrate truths. He went through Euclid and appleid the strategies of proofs to legal argumentations. Lincoln entered Illinois politics at the age of 23. He served as a postmaster, a state representative, a representative to the U.S. Congress from Ilinois, He took strong positions on the issues of U.S. involvement in the Mexican War (opposed), abolishing slave trade, and keeping the states united. His accomplishements include holding the union together through winning the Civil War and the Emancipation Proclamation which freed the slaves in America. Lincoln allowed his Cabinet members to bicker over issues but he read and listened carefully, then announced his decisions made with careful deliberation. Despite some of his personal problems, Lincoln was known for his intelligence and honesty.

Leadership Studies

Leadership studies that leaders in various contexts have certain necessary and desirable characteristics. These are not about personal strengths such as honesty alone, but also about skills in dealing with people such as motivating others to do well with their strengths.

Weaknesses in leaders prevent them from being good at positions such as executive leadership. These inlcude being unifomed, being too rigid, communicating in overly authoritarian manners.

Some research indicates that leaders have good social skills, good technical skills, good administrative abilities, friendliness, abilities to motivate people, supportiveness, and emotional balance. It is crucial to recognize that none of the leadership characteristics described here are static. Good leaders know how to monitor, analyze, and adjust in flexible ways to changing circumstances.

Presidential leadership is not one-size-fits-all material. Presidential timber is the basic foundation upon which other more situational factors must be added but without which we may get in trouble.

The Formal Needs for a Presidency

Upon recognizing the duties of a President, the leadership skills necessary become readily apparent.

Presidents must be able to function as commanders-in-chief, as initiators and negotiators of both domestic and foreign policies, as spokespersons for United States foreign relations goals and policies, as chief exectives, and as symbolic leaders of the most powerful nation on the planet. Clearly, these roles require leadership skills of clear and persuasive communication, diplomacy, international transactions, economic analysis, and rhetorical adaptation.

A strong and effective President must be able to generate a national vision and sense of direction for the nation, to help set national priorities for legislation, to help with crisis management, and to help maintain unity and stability in the overall political system.

Presidential Timber

From the above discussion, I conclude that the necessary but not sufficient conditions, what I call presidential timber, for an effective President are as follows:

  • intelligence and continued self-education with an appreciation of complexity.
  • conflict management skills.
  • assertiveness with abilities to encourage differing viewpoints.
  • decision-making abilities in the face of conflict and pressures.
  • getting involved with controversies and taking reasoned positions.
  • flexibility and adaptability
  • good communication, persuasion, and motivation skills.
  • negotiation, diplomacy, and transaction abilities.
  • good character including honesty, morality, and caring.


While it is arguable that presidential timber cannot be rigidly defined or defined hardly at all, I argue that it can be defined with the qualified that this timber is not easy to pin down, but can be seen in the contrasts between effective and ineffective presidents. Single characteristics are not presidential timber. Clusters of good traits do seem to constitue it when they are most relevant to the office. Being locked in powerlessness by situations or circimstances does not justify a lack of timber or explain it away. Thus, a president cannot simply blame Congress for being ineffective. A good President will know how to work with Congress to move his agenda forward. And sometimes a good president will steadfastly resist pressures and temptations.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time." --- Abe Lincoln



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Saturday, September 13, 2008

JOHN MCCAIN'S BRIDGE TO NOWHERE


JOHN MCCAIN'S BRIDGE TO NOWHERE

September 13, 2008

We are hearing lots from John McCain about how he puts country above personal interests but there is little in this campaign to prove that this is true. American voters are getting daily claims about who is the real change agent and how Sarah Palin has charmed the voters somehow with God knows what. Does anyone really believe her claim that the war in Iraq is God's war? What can we surmise about McCain's judgment when he does not select a nationally known and respected leader to be his VP running mate, but rather chooses an unknown, untested, and seemingly problematic person to be number two?

McCain is on a crash course with truth. He has been part of the Beltway insider club and American aristocracy for a quarter of a century and now is trying to re-frame himself as some sort of outsider, reformer, or maverick. The makeover does not work well for anyone who have been reading the news for the past twenty years. McCain is strictly status quo except for a handful of issues like torturing war on terror prisoners. He nothing to offer the elderly, students, working class folks, middle class people, or even veterans.

A sudden conversion to the cause of protecting working and middle class families against the excesses that he helped to support and promote is an insult to the intelligence of American voters. McCain has a bridge to the past, to the corruption of the oil company tycoons, and to the special interests that serve only the wealthy.