Friday, October 31, 2008

Republican Denial

SLIPPING INTO DENIAL ON THE MCCAIN-PALIN SIDE

Kenneth Hacker

October 31, 2008


Whether high on pills or not, Limbaugh sounded like he was losing his mind the other day as he begged Republicans not to throw in the towel but then later added that he cannot believe that Americans will vote to give up their freedom on Tuesday and they elect Obama as President. Despite the desperation of this king of rhetorical blather, voters are moving closer to Obama in more states and more Republican consultants and advisors are cashing out. Just today, former McCain advisor Mike Murphy talked about how bleak McCain's chances are and famous Republican consultant Charles Cook said that there there is very little chance of a McCain win.

A losing campaign will tend to to say that the polls are not to believed. They argue that the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

Have Governor Terminator join the campaign while Sam/Joe the Plumber is still a missing card is just another sign of desperation in a campaign that has fractured into lost themes and too much focus on the Alaska Barbie Doll named Sarah Palin.

Much will be debated about why McCain lost but it should become clear that the the main candidate displayed horrible judgment in his VP pick, his campaign focus, and his negativity against Obama. It is time for John McCain to retire.

Monday, October 27, 2008

DID AL QAEDA ENDORSE MCCAIN?

TERRORISM CHARGES CAN BE USED AGAINST MCCAIN TOO

Kenneth Hacker

October 29, 2008

As the McCain campaign still tries to make an issue out of a Vietnam war protestor who bombed buildings and was willing to commit acts of terrorism 49 years ago, McCain can now be subjected to claims of support by terrorists that are far more powerful that the powerless Bill Ayers in Chicago. Indeed, Al Qaeda is said to be framing McCain as the kind of president they need in order to continue the folly of Bush -- the incessant tendency to fan the flames of violence and anti-Americanism in the Middle East.

So unless McCain wants bin Laden hung around his neck, he should halt the absurd Palin charges that Obama pals around with terrorists. All of this constitutes nonissue rhetoric that simply diverts attention from the real issues of this election. If McCain had a medical care and tax reform policy that made sense, he would not have to stoop to cheap tricks-based campaigning.

It is time for McCain to kick Palin off the stage and to propose some kind of serious foreign policy and plan to deal with terrorism against the United States. McCain is short on time and Obama is still vulnerable on foreign policy issues. Obama is saying the right thing now by noting that his administration will have taking out bin Liden as a first priority. Maybe bin Laden knows that McCain, like Bush, will let him stay in hiding...

WILL BARACK CLOSE THE DEAL OR NOT?

WILL BARACK OBAMA CLOSE THE DEAL OR NOT?

Kenneth Hacker

October 29, 2008

There is less than one week left. The Obama campaign needs to close the deal now or risk some form of October surprise leading to a McCain upset on election day next week.

McCain is like the Energizer Bunny; he will not stop running. His supported are charged by the claims that an Obama presidency could bring socialism or even the Anti-Christ to the White House. Dick Morris and Karl Rove correctly note that Obama is not far enough outside of the polling margins of error to be confident of a definite win.

There are obstacles that can diminish the winning margins for Obama we see in the polls. These include voter fraud, voter intimidation, voting machine and softward tampering, a possible Bradley Effect, expected lower voter turnout for young voters, and challenge regarding taxes and wealth redistribution that begin to move up Obama's negatives or at least doubts about him.

Obama is doing fine on candidate images traits but still need to find the tipping points that close the deal with voters. He must neutralize all doubts that voters have about him and generate new doubts about McCain and Palin. There is a tendency for even Republicans to vote for McCain because of Palin's incompetence and frightening closeness to assuming high office. Joe Biden should be given a strict set of talk points that rip into Palin. He is no longer in the debate with her and he does not have to be nice. He needs to point out the lies she tells about her record in Alaska, the nutty church she attends, the insane comments she makes about foreign policy and religion, etc. etc.

While Biden axes the other team, Obama needs to clarify that he is not socialist. Republican communication director for Ronald Reagan, David Gergen should write the Obama text for the next few days. Just yesterday, Gergen took fellow Republicans to task to allowing McCain to call Obama a socialist. He noted that Republican president Teddy Roosevelt, McCain's favorit president, was a proponent of the progressive tax -- where the wealthy pay larger percentages of their income than the middle and working classes. He also noted that the proposal for earned income tax credits, which help "spread the wealth around," came from Ronald Reagan.

So much to say and so little time to say it. Use it or lose it. Say it or go back to Illinois.



Sunday, October 26, 2008

HOW JOHN MCCAIN CAN STILL WIN

HOW JOHN MCCAIN CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTION

Kenneth Hacker

October 27, 2008

It is no secret that the only chance McCain now has of winning is to tip some key swing states in his favor to gain the magic number of 270+ of Electoral College votes. Some fairly “red” states look like they might be vulnerable to a McCain surge. However, he needs to carry what are now designated as all of the swing states to get to this goal: These are Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. If he carried these states at this point, he would get about 274 electoral votes to Obama’s 264 electoral college votes. How can he possibly do this?

The first thing to do is to muzzle Sarah Palin and Sean Hannity who both do more damage to the possible persuasion of McCain that anyone can yet imagine. McCain needs to demonstrate that he is in charge of his own discourse and quit acting like a senior citizen looking for the next shuffleboard game arranged by Palin and Hannity. If he would tell all of his advisors and followers that racism has no place in American campaigns and that he will be a stop to it right this second, he would gain recognition as the strong, moral leader he claims to be. As Karl Rove has written, criticism of campaign opponents must be fair and reasonable. What Palin and Hannnity put out is pure hate speech that is designed to make Obama the “other” who cannot be counted as “one of us.” It is too late to dismiss the nutty Palin from the ticket but there may still be time to put a leash on her.

Message clarity is essential to a campaign as are vision and statesmanship. All of this is lacking now in the McCain-Palin campaign speeches. Advertising follows suit. Better quality in framing is sorely needed to make a case for John McCain being the most likely one to serve the interests of the American people. But this cannot be seen in ideas like a medical care reform proposal that sounds like a “Run along now” approach to voters and citizens. McCain needs to forget Obama for now and let Americans now how, when, where, and his proposals on the economy, taxes, national security, etc. make more sense than those of Obama.

The failure of the present communication strategies of the McCain campaign are centered in an overreliance on negative campaigning and a focus on cues and imagery with very little substance that voters can mull over and discuss. Right now, it is easy to dismiss the candidate as having little to offer other than four more years of what we have now. This is why change perceptions are dramatically in Obama’s favor.

The cynical consulting within the McCain campaign that encourages relentless attacking on the character of Obama reveals an unbelievable ignorance of psychology and how the mind works. Sure, we can implicitly learn how Obama is some sort of “other” who we cannot trust because he knows a man that bombed building during the Vietnam protests of forty years ago, but we can also implicitly learn to distrust McCain as an old cranky man who throws out invectives instead of policy proposals. This is a double-player game and the points of voter concerns are ignored by the McCain advisors to their candidate’s peril. The Obama advisors correctly concluded that McCain’s ally who shoots abortion doctors and his ally G. Gordon Liddy who teaches people how to effective shoot U.S. government federal agents are silly topics of discussion when the voters want to know what the next President will do about jobs and the economy.

If the McCain advisors had any sense at all, they would put up the signs that the Clinton aides put up in 1992: “It’s the economy stupid!” If McCain continues to listen to Rick Davis and others who say that they lose when focusing on the economy, they might as well just start asking President Obama for jobs in the new administration, perhaps as file clerks in some unheard of office.

Saturday, October 04, 2008

THE BIDEN-PALIN DEBATE OF 2008

BIDEN FAILS TO HIT THE HOME RUN AND PALIN SHOWS SHE IS GOOD WITH MEMORIZATION

Kenneth Hacker

October 6, 2008

Both VP candidates did well at holding their own and not making any major mistakes. However, both candidates failed to show clearly why they should be vice president over the other one. Both essentially did what they needed to do in this debate. Palin and Biden both had problems with their facts, however and Palin directly some fairly tasteless insults to Barack Obama.

What is more important that all of the stylistic behaviors are the policy statements that the candidates made on behalf of what they and their principal candidates seek to do with the direction of the nation.

Voter impressions of the election are likely to stabilize with Obama keeping a lead in the polls until John McCain connects with voters himself. His advisors have apparently forgotten that VP candidates have little if any signficant effects on presidental candidate selection.

While FOX News analysts have been gushing for days about how Palin won the debate, cleaned Biden's clock, and peformed in a spectactular fashion, the polls do not reflect their bedazzlement. A more sober analysis shows that she was throwing out more whoppers and will once again be exposed for having a truthtelling problem. And again, Biden will be noted as not reeling in his tendencies to exagerrate.

This was an interesting debate and hopefully educated voters the policy differences between the two tickets.

THE PALIN PROBLEM

THE PALIN PROBLEM

Kenneth Hacker

October 4, 2008

When John McCain picked Sarah Palin (governor of Alaska for nearly two years), he must have thought that she would somehow strengthen the ticket. Now the advisor that recommended her must be feeling like the Dukakis advisor that told Dukakis he would look cool riding around in a tank. Bad calls like this can sink a campaign.

The Palin Problem has many angles. Yes she is a hardworking mother with a pretty face, but what else is there? Americans are still wondering and the persona is getting filled in with stories about lying, trying to get people fired for personal reasons, not being the anti-pork crusader she claims to be, and saying some bizarred things about the holy nature of the war in Iraq.

Ironically, the woman chosen to save the McCain candidacy may be the person who ends it in defeat. No serious voter or political analyst can take her seriously as a President and the possibilities of her taking over after John McCain are not small. McCain is old and has health problems and he may not be able to serve a second term, thus leaving her to run as an incumbent. This is frightening to many voters who see her as a smily mother who became a governor and has only the most shallow of comments to make about almost all subjects.

We would expect a person calling themselves a born-again Christian to have some commitment to truthtelling, but like Bush, Palin and truthtelling seldom meet. If the public gets a sense that she lies so often, she will rapidly nosedive on evaluations of sincerity and honesty.

She says that she visited the troops in Iraq; she has never been to Iraq. She says that she has visited Ireland. Her plane refueled there only (MSNBC News, 9.18.08). She says that she was opposed to earmark (“pork”) legislation in Alaska but had a major role in getting it both as mayor of Wasilla and governor of the state.

Palin has said that her state, Alaska, provides 20% of the energy for the United States. This is far from the true number which is 3.5% (Washington, Post, ).

Can it be any wonder that 60% of Americans do not trust Ms. Palin? (ABC News poll, 10.2.08). It cannot be surprising that less than half of American think she understands the complex issues facing the nation (ABC News poll, 10.2.08).

The debate with Joe Biden was not a smashing success for Biden but it did provide closure to the argument that Palin is not ready for prime time. She gave more evidence of her shallow view of politics, government, and the crises facing our nation. She said nothing profound or even slightly insightful to note. She is wisdom-free and deception-abundant. Once again, she was trying to deceive people about Barack Obama.

While Dick Morris and his fellow Republican activsts on FOX News try to spin a bad debate peformance into a clobbering of Biden (watch Hannity spin out of control on this one...), the fact of the matter is that Palin did not gain any points for the Republican ticket. You cannot count on winking to convice the American people that everything is peachy with an economy in crisis.